Alright boys — here’s what I’m looking at for March 31, 2025, based on the projective lines floating around today. Void if SP changes, obviously, so stay sharp as lineup confirmations drop closer to game time.
Here’s my read:
Twins -142
If Ryan’s on the mound, I like this line. Twins' pen’s been solid to open, and their bats are hot vs right-handers. Wouldn’t lay too heavy but fair value if you catch -135 or better.
Brewers -103
Almost a coin flip here. Monitor pitching — if Houser gets the nod, I’d fade. If it’s Peralta, slight lean Brewers.
Red Sox -111 / +128
That +128 is juicy for dogs. Depends on who’s starting for Boston, but if it's Whitlock or Crawford, worth a sprinkle. Big IF though. Weather in Boston could also play a role.
Phillies -217
That’s steep but understandable. Wheeler at home, offense locked in, bullpen rested. Not a ton of value, maybe look at run line or F5 if you want action.
Mets -199
I usually don’t touch the Mets near -200 unless it’s Senga or Díaz is back. Keep an eye on injury updates. Could be a live bet situation.
Reds -116 / +113
Very weird pricing. If Abbott is pitching, love the Reds. If not, I’m out. That +113 dog money could flip once lineups post.
Rays -148
Tampa’s always sharp early in the season. If Bradley or Pepiot is starting, I like this. Not huge value but steady.
Blue Jays -146
Wouldn’t touch it unless Gausman’s pitching. Jays have been streaky at the plate, and this price is a bit high unless they’re facing a bottom rotation guy.
Cardinals -143
Eh. Cards at home are usually decent, but I’d need more info on the matchup. Probably a stay-away for me unless we get plus money on the other side.
Astros -137
Undervalued if Framber or Javier is on the bump. Anything under -140 for the Astros early season is worth looking at. Lean HOU here.
Tigers -125 / +106
Tigers as favs?
Haven’t said that in a while. But if Skubal is throwing, that line makes sense. Could be a sneaky value play.
Padres -122
These guys burned me a few times last season
but I like the line if Musgrove or Lugo is on. Worth watching.
Cubs -127
Great early spot if Steele is on the mound. If not, I’d pass. Might pair this with another line in a two-team parlay.
Dodgers -187
It’s the Dodgers. They’re almost never worth betting straight at this price unless you’re taking F5 or alt spread. Just don’t parlay them blindly.
Let me know if y’all are playing any of these — always down to compare leans or matchup notes. I’ll post confirmed picks closer to first pitch once rotations are locked.
Here’s my read:
Twins -142If Ryan’s on the mound, I like this line. Twins' pen’s been solid to open, and their bats are hot vs right-handers. Wouldn’t lay too heavy but fair value if you catch -135 or better.
Brewers -103Almost a coin flip here. Monitor pitching — if Houser gets the nod, I’d fade. If it’s Peralta, slight lean Brewers.
Red Sox -111 / +128That +128 is juicy for dogs. Depends on who’s starting for Boston, but if it's Whitlock or Crawford, worth a sprinkle. Big IF though. Weather in Boston could also play a role.
Phillies -217That’s steep but understandable. Wheeler at home, offense locked in, bullpen rested. Not a ton of value, maybe look at run line or F5 if you want action.
Mets -199I usually don’t touch the Mets near -200 unless it’s Senga or Díaz is back. Keep an eye on injury updates. Could be a live bet situation.
Reds -116 / +113Very weird pricing. If Abbott is pitching, love the Reds. If not, I’m out. That +113 dog money could flip once lineups post.
Rays -148Tampa’s always sharp early in the season. If Bradley or Pepiot is starting, I like this. Not huge value but steady.
Blue Jays -146Wouldn’t touch it unless Gausman’s pitching. Jays have been streaky at the plate, and this price is a bit high unless they’re facing a bottom rotation guy.
Cardinals -143Eh. Cards at home are usually decent, but I’d need more info on the matchup. Probably a stay-away for me unless we get plus money on the other side.
Astros -137Undervalued if Framber or Javier is on the bump. Anything under -140 for the Astros early season is worth looking at. Lean HOU here.
Tigers -125 / +106Tigers as favs?
Haven’t said that in a while. But if Skubal is throwing, that line makes sense. Could be a sneaky value play. Padres -122These guys burned me a few times last season
but I like the line if Musgrove or Lugo is on. Worth watching. Cubs -127Great early spot if Steele is on the mound. If not, I’d pass. Might pair this with another line in a two-team parlay.
Dodgers -187It’s the Dodgers. They’re almost never worth betting straight at this price unless you’re taking F5 or alt spread. Just don’t parlay them blindly.
Let me know if y’all are playing any of these — always down to compare leans or matchup notes. I’ll post confirmed picks closer to first pitch once rotations are locked.