Work out the real expected value of a deposit bonus once you factor in the wagering requirement, game contribution, and house edge.
Every casino welcome bonus comes attached to a wagering requirement: a multiple of either the bonus or the deposit plus the bonus that you have to bet through before any winnings become withdrawable. The bonus carries real value only when you can clear that requirement without losing more, in expected terms, than the bonus itself is worth. This tool runs that calculation against the inputs you provide.
Enter the deposit, the bonus amount, the wagering multiplier, whether that multiplier applies to bonus only or to deposit plus bonus, the house edge of the game you intend to clear on, and that game's contribution percentage. The output is the expected loss from running the required volume, the net expected value of the bonus, and the break-even house edge: the maximum game edge at which the bonus still profits on average.
The six rows below cover typical offers at varying wagering basis, multiplier, game edge, and contribution. Notice how dramatically the net EV swings between rows that look superficially similar in headline terms:
| Bonus | Wagering | Basis | Game edge | Contribution | Net EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100 | 30x | D+B | 4% | 100% | -140.00 |
| 100 | 30x | Bonus only | 4% | 100% | -20.00 |
| 50 | 25x | Bonus only | 3% | 100% | +12.50 |
| 200 | 40x | Bonus only | 0.5% | 10% | -200.00 |
| 25 | 20x | Bonus only | 3% | 100% | +10.00 |
| 100 | 35x | D+B | 2.5% | 100% | -75.00 |
The next variable to interrogate is game contribution. Slots usually count 100% of every bet toward wagering. Blackjack, baccarat, video poker, and live dealer games frequently contribute 10% to 25%, and some categories (live tables, sports wagering) often contribute nothing. A "low-edge clear" on blackjack at 0.5% house edge sounds appealing, but if blackjack only contributes 10% of each bet, you have to push ten times the headline wagering volume through the system to clear it, which wipes out the edge advantage and then some.
A cashable bonus joins your withdrawable balance once the wagering is cleared. A sticky bonus does not: only winnings on top of the bonus are withdrawable, and the bonus amount itself stays with the casino. Sticky offers are more common in higher-roller welcome packages and reload offers, and the math is different. Treat a sticky bonus as already gone the moment you accept it, and count only profit beyond the deposit. This calculator assumes the cashable case.
