MisterMiyagi
Member
Alright folks, buckle up cause I’ve been rolling some numbers around in my head and I need a sanity check. 
So, I’ve been trying to sharpen my approach when it comes to pricing anytime bets. The way I’ve been playing it is simple: I decide what I think the fair price should be, say it’s a true 5/2 shot (or 3.5 for you decimal types). I toss in my desired margin and if I can find anything better than, let’s say, 14/5 or 3.8, I take the plunge.
From my experience, it feels like my bets are falling into three main categories:
A: "BET" — I’m getting the price I want with the margin built in.
B: Better than fair but not quite my sweet spot.
C: Worse than fair — complete pass.
Now, here's the kicker — I’ve been tracking the returns, and it’s looking like:
What I did was compare my price evaluation to someone else’s. That way, you end up with nine different categories ranging from AA (We both agree it’s worth a bet) to CC (We both think it’s a dumpster fire). And here’s where things get interesting:
Now, if I stick to my A selections, the ROI is 1.14% over 632 bets. Decent, but nothing to retire on. But if I ditch those AC bets and focus more on the BA selections, my ROI jumps to 9% with 571 bets. Quite the difference, right?
I’m leaning towards giving this dual-approach a longer trial, but I’d love to hear what some of you legends think. Am I onto something or just chasing rainbows here?
Hit me with your thoughts.
So, I’ve been trying to sharpen my approach when it comes to pricing anytime bets. The way I’ve been playing it is simple: I decide what I think the fair price should be, say it’s a true 5/2 shot (or 3.5 for you decimal types). I toss in my desired margin and if I can find anything better than, let’s say, 14/5 or 3.8, I take the plunge.From my experience, it feels like my bets are falling into three main categories:
A: "BET" — I’m getting the price I want with the margin built in.
B: Better than fair but not quite my sweet spot.
C: Worse than fair — complete pass.
Now, here's the kicker — I’ve been tracking the returns, and it’s looking like:
- Category A (BET): Modest profit, nothing crazy but steady.
- Category B (Better than fair, less than target): Smaller profit.
- Category C (Worse than fair): Dumpster fire. Huge losses.
What I did was compare my price evaluation to someone else’s. That way, you end up with nine different categories ranging from AA (We both agree it’s worth a bet) to CC (We both think it’s a dumpster fire). And here’s where things get interesting:
- AA: Profit is pretty decent. Makes sense, we both like the odds.
- BA: Surprisingly, even better profit. Meaning, when I think it's a good price but the other fella says it’s even better, it’s worth the shot.
- AC: Garbage. When I say “bet” but the other source thinks it’s worse than fair, it’s a loss more often than not.
Now, if I stick to my A selections, the ROI is 1.14% over 632 bets. Decent, but nothing to retire on. But if I ditch those AC bets and focus more on the BA selections, my ROI jumps to 9% with 571 bets. Quite the difference, right?
I’m leaning towards giving this dual-approach a longer trial, but I’d love to hear what some of you legends think. Am I onto something or just chasing rainbows here?
Hit me with your thoughts.